(By Ray D.)
I conducted this interview with Brent Scowcroft is on the future of US-EU relations for a final paper for my graduate degree. The interview took place on March 19 and is 40 minutes long. LISTEN HERE.
Condensed excerpts:
Question: General, where do you see
US-EU relations moving in the next ten years?
SCOWCROFT: That’s very hard to predict
because part of it depends on how EU internal developments move. There was an
initial phase where we were pushing it because we thought that Europe united
was stronger than Europe of many countries and we needed that strength in
dealing with the Soviet Union. After the Cold War, we entered a second stage in
which we saw ourselves in a more antagonistic relationship. (…) And France has
always in part had that kind of an attitude. The French, I think, have spent
the time certainly since the end of the Cold War and some before trying to
drive us out of Europe so they could really be the pivotal state in the EU.
That phase is on the decline now, and it comes at a time when the EU has its
own internal problems. (…) Then they finally had a referendum and the European
people said “No, we don’t like this.”Question: You’re referring to France
and Holland rejecting the constitution?SCOWCROFT: Yes, and I think they were
broadly representative – not of all of Europe – but of a large part. So Europe
is trying to figure out who they are and for newer members, especially the
eastern European members – to them – membership in NATO is at least as
important as the EU and they still see their security problem as being east –
Russia.Question: You say they are trying to
figure out who they are (…). How do you think that identity crisis is going to
affect US-EU relations looking ahead?SCOWCROFT: I honestly think that it
will improve US-EU relations because there is ambivalence in the United States
about whether we want a strong EU or not. To the extent that the EU does not
appear to be a United States of Europe, our ambivalence tends to go away. (…) I
think the notion of an EU that continues both to broaden and deepen is not
going to happen. I think as it broadens, it’s going to get shallower.Question: Do you see increasingly the
US picking and choosing partners in Europe?SCOWCROFT: No. I think we will treat
Europe as a more organic thing than coalitions of the willing – but less
organic than if there were a deep European Union. It will be sort of somewhere
in between. We will lobby among the Europeans, but be comfortable with
not-unanimity. One of the things we are seeing now in Europe with the Islamic
minorities – even the Netherlands with a deep history of toleration – it has a
deep history of toleration but not of assimilation. (…) And they’ve gotten over
it in a way – but most of them have had great trouble assimilating the Muslims.
(…) We will seek to help the Europeans with a problem that we don’t have nearly
as much.Question: What about NATO. Do you see
the hesitancy of the continental or “old” Europeans to carry their weight
militarily as a major stumbling block?SCOWCROFT: I think it’s a major
stumbling block, but it is due less to the issues we are talking about than to
the deep instincts in Germany still – the aversion to force and militarism –
and in the rest of Europe that Afghanistan is not our fight. A more interesting
case in how Europe may go is Turkey and whether or not it gets into the EU.
That is a stretch to the ethnic and religious issue. If Europe looks at it
coldly and dispassionately they will say Turkey ought to be in the EU.Question: Do you see Iraq as a
continuing factor in US-EU relations?SCOWCROFT: It was a struggle of
leadership between the British and French. The French said this was their
chance to drive the US out of Europe. It was pretty much a draw. Both sides are
moving beyond unilateralism and the “new Europe – old Europe.”Question: Regarding Guantanamo, Abu
Ghraib and civil rights. Do you think the US has gone too far?SCOWCROFT: I think there’s a real
danger of it because it looks to the Europeans like we are denying our common
heritage – that we are becoming like the people who we’re fighting. But I don’t
think it’s deep enough to affect the basic currents we are talking about
because I think deep down most Europeans think we will come around.Question: On trade, what are your
thoughts?SCOWCROFT: I have thought, ever since I
was in the first Bush administration, that we ought to have a free trade
agreement. It is really quite simple except agriculture. We are already
profiting from the EU and the breaking down of national differences in
trade.Question: How do you see US-EU
relations developing towards Russia?SCOWCROFT: I think we both need to look
at Russia more realistically. Whether or not they become a democracy or
something else is not going to depend on us but on internal developments.
Russians are Russians and are both paranoid, have an inbred inferiority
complex, and an instinct to dominate. I would like to break their monopoly on
oil and gas. I think we can do it by promoting a pipeline under the Caspian
Sea.Question: Is the Bush administration
to blame for anti-Americanism?SCOWCROFT: Primarily the Bush
administration that has had not only an over-leaning sense of its own power but
a disdain for Europe. (…) They realize you can’t solve your problems unilaterally.
All the military and economic strength we have can’t even tame a little country
like Iraq. And to deal with the major problems of the world we’ve got to have
friends – and now we’re even grudgingly saying even talk to our enemies. I
think we are backing away from the high point of unilateralism. That will help
us get back to a more normal relationship with Europe. I would take a hands-off
view about the EU. I would say that we will deal with whatever kind of Europe
the Europeans say they want.
Special thanks to General Scowcroft and his entire staff for granting this interview.
