For German politics and the German media, the U.S. and in particular U.S. President Bush are the default villains of environmental policy. Next to the bible, “Kyoto” is the cherished vision for a better world, in which humans, penguins and polar bears, to name a few beneficiaries, will live together in perfect natural harmony. All that stands between the paradise and the present are Bush’s neocons who simply refuse to accept the consensus view of science.
Imagine, then, the surprise for the German audience generated by a speech of Kurt Volker, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs of the U.S. State Department. The speech was given on Feb 12, 2007, at a meeting of the German Marshall Fund.
Excerpts:
Now, I know there is a deeply held view among many in Europe that the U.S. Government doesn’t get it. That we don’t care about climate change, that we are doing nothing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and that Europe, while perhaps not perfect, is doing a far better job of tackling the issue than the United States. This proposition–no matter how simple, no matter how widely held, and no matter how much it fits a pop-culture “blame-the-United States” paradigm–is completely wrong, on every point. (…)
Let me start first with the data, because it is important to have the facts on the table. No question: The United States is the world’s largest emitter of CO2. Everybody in the room knows this. But this fact says no more about the United States, than the fact that Germany leads Europe in emissions says about Germany.
The United States is number one in greenhouse gas emissions primarily because it is the number one economy in the world. With 5% of the world’s population we produce 25% of global wealth. And despite being relatively clean and green, Germany leads Europe in emissions, because it is Europe’s largest economy. Our emissions are not out of line with the size of our economy. And it’s worth noting: the International Energy Agency is forecasting that China, with a smaller economy, is expected to surpass U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 2009.
More important than current emissions is the trend line. What is actually happening to emissions? Are they being reduced? This, after all, is what Kyoto is supposed to address.
According to data from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, from 2000-2004–the most recent period for which we have good, comparative data–U.S. greenhouse gas emissions increased by 1.3 percent. This is an increase, but a very modest increase. The EU-25, on the other hand, increased collective emissions by 2.1 percent.
And, no, this is not because the new EU members added since the 2004 expansion run dirtier economies than the previous 15 members, and this then bumps up the numbers. Actually, the new members have the opposite effect. Those nations–by moving away
