This is a projection of the population of European countries for 2050, taken from a publication of the German statistical bureau destatis (p. 16):
Germany’s population will shrink from its current level of 82,5 million by roughly 10 percent until 2050. In addition, the age composition of the German population will change. While the current share of the 60+ group is already comparatively high at 25 %, it will rise to one third of the population in 2050. Conversally, the share of the “up to 20” group will fall from 21 % to 15 % (p. 17).
The average number of children per woman in Germany is 1,37 (2004) (p. 14). Of course, this is an average across all population groups. Women from immigrant families are substantially more fertile than German women; the reproduction rate of German women alone will be considerably lower than 1,37, probably less than 1,20 (my guess).
Within a few decades, Germany will face grave consequences of these demographic shifts:
- The large group of retirees and pensioners – which will be mostly Christians – will have to be supported by a work force that is smaller than today, with a substantial share of Muslims. Already today, the German pay-as-you-go retirement system comes under heavy criticism.
- The German elites, which today and for the foreseeable are overwhelmingly non-immigrant Christians, will face a population with a substantial share of immigrant non-Christians. A clash of values within seems inevitable.
I am not so sure whether the cherished German social welfare model will survive this clash…
